This fair-value line, determined by simulating the season 1,000 times and compiling the results for each team, gives us a crucial comparison point to use when evaluating various wagers on the menu. As always, you should shop around for the best price.
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Atlanta Falcons over 9½ wins, -135 at DraftKings (wager $135 to win $100)
Forget the quarterback controversy the organization created when it drafted Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 after signing Kirk Cousins this offseason. It wasn’t ideal, but Cousins should still be the No. 1 option in 2024, providing an upgrade under center.
Instead, focus on Day 2 of Atlanta’s draft, which included trading up for Clemson defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro and Washington edge rusher Bralen Trice. New head coach Raheem Morris added three more players in the draft to bolster a defensive front that struggled last year.
Additionally, the Falcons boast the league’s easiest schedule based on the win totals provided by oddsmakers this spring. Their opponents were given an average win total of 7.7 wins for 2024, the lowest of any schedule for the upcoming season. As a result, I would expect them to win 10 or more games — with a 54 percent chance to finish at 11-6 or better.
Tennessee Titans under 6½ wins, -122 at FanDuel
The Titans cleaned house this offseason after posting a 6-11 record. According to Jason Fitzgerald from Over The Cap, Tennessee is among the teams with the fewest percent of players returning from 2023 (63 percent, excluding signing defensive lineman Marlon Davidson to a one-year contract).
Some of that change should be positive, with new faces on offense including wide receiver Calvin Ridley, running back Tony Pollard and center Lloyd Cushenberry — plus offensive tackle JC Latham, the No. 7 pick in this year’s draft. Still, for the offense to succeed, quarterback Will Levis would need to take a big step forward. He ended his rookie season with a Total Quarterback Rating of 33.2 per ESPN, meaning his performance was good enough to get a team to a five- or six-win season. Pro Football Focus ranked him 25th out of 29 qualified passers from Week 8 to the end of the regular season.
Without a capable passer on the roster, it’s hard to be optimistic about Tennessee’s short-term future. I am fine asking Levis and new coach Brian Callahan to prove they can do it before betting they can — and right now, there’s value in the under.
New England Patriots under 5½ wins, -142 at FanDuel, or under 4½ wins, +135 at DraftKings
Fair value: -180 and +127, respectively
The Patriots will be without Bill Belichick on the sidelines for the first time since 2000. Instead it will be new coach Jerod Mayo, a Patriots linebacker from 2008 to 2015, tasked with returning the franchise to relevance.
The front office did what it could to help the offense in the draft; New England used seven of its eight picks on offense — two wide receivers, two linemen, one tight end and two quarterbacks, including Drake Maye at No. 3 overall — but it probably won’t be enough in Year 1 of the Mayo era. The Patriots need to overhaul a unit that scored 12 fewer points than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia.
Plus, the AFC East is stacked this year, especially with a New York Jets team certain to improve. Add in facing the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals among the out-of-division foes, and the road to improving on last year’s 4-13 record becomes much more difficult.
Most wins, fewest wins, perfect seasons (17-0) and winless record (0-17)
These markets are heavily juiced, meaning the house takes a large cut to mitigate its risk. As a result, the prices are awful for these wagers.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs carry +3500 odds (wager $100 to win $3,500) at DraftKings to go 17-0. Those odds imply the sportsbook thinks there is approximately 2.8 percent chance the Chiefs pull off a perfect season. That, in turn, means it gives Kansas City an 81 percent chance to win each game. They would have to be 9½-point favorites in every game to be worthy of such of a high win rate per contest. That seems impossible considering their 2024 opponents include the AFC North (Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals), plus the Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers.
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