Only two playoff-bound teams — the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks — know whom they will be playing in the first round of the playoffs. Aside from those two teams, which are seeded fourth and fifth in the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference’s top-seeded Boston Celtics are the only team that has secured one of 12 guaranteed playoff spots that knows its seed. Additionally, the Chicago Bulls are locked in as the No. 9 seed and the Atlanta Hawks are set as the No. 10 seed for the East’s play-in tournament.
Otherwise, everything is up for grabs Sunday, which will feature seven games running concurrently starting at 1 p.m. Eastern time and eight games scheduled for 3:30 p.m.
With the Celtics running away from the rest of the East, the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are battling for the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 seeds. If the Bucks beat the Orlando Magic on Sunday, they will claim the second spot. If not, the Knicks, who face the Bulls, and the Cavaliers, who face the Charlotte Hornets, could capitalize.
In the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are fighting for the top three seeds. If the Thunder beats the Dallas Mavericks, it will claim the No. 1 seed. The Timberwolves, who play the Phoenix Suns, and the Nuggets, who face the Memphis Grizzlies, have a chance to move up if the Thunder falters.
Further down the West bracket, the Suns and New Orleans Pelicans are jockeying for the No. 6 seed. The Pelicans will host the Los Angeles Lakers with a chance to secure the conference’s final guaranteed playoff spot. The Suns can move up with a road win against the Timberwolves and a Pelicans loss.
Meanwhile, play-in tournament madness reigns in both conferences, with major stars LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid at risk of being eliminated before the first round of the playoffs.
The play-in tournament, which was adopted in 2020 and expanded in 2021, was designed to include scaling incentives for higher-seeded teams that would spur late-season competition. In the expanded format, the top six seeds in each conference go directly to the playoffs; the seventh seed must win one of two play-in games (if necessary) to secure a playoff spot, the eighth seed gets two play-in chances to advance and gets to host the second (if necessary); the ninth seed must win two play-in games to get in but gets to host its first game; and the 10th seed is left to win two road play-in games to make the bracket.
That structure largely achieved its goal of encouraging teams to play harder down the stretch of the regular season, and it has created a complicated framework of potential outcomes based on Sunday’s games.
In the East, the Magic, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat could climb as high as No. 5 or fall as low as No. 8. If all four teams win, Orlando and Indiana will claim guaranteed playoff spots, while Philadelphia and Miami will land in the play-in tournament. However, the Magic must play the Bucks, while the other three teams will face teams that are out of contention.
In the West, the Lakers, Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors are in a three-way race for No. 8, No. 9 and No. 10 in the play-in tournament. If the Lakers can upset the Pelicans on the road, they will claim the No. 8 seed. If the Lakers lose, they are likely to fall to No. 10. The Kings and Warriors face lottery opponents Sunday, setting up the possibility they leapfrog the Lakers.
Despite the seeding chaos, none of the 20 teams eligible for the postseason is at risk of being eliminated Sunday. The play-tournament will begin Tuesday before the playoffs commence in earnest Saturday.
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