“Never seen anything like it,” said a high-ranking official with one team that will be selecting a quarterback in the first round. “If anybody tells you they know how this is going to play out, they are full of s—.”
After Caleb Williams goes to the Chicago Bears with the first pick, it seems anything is on the table. Usually by now, there is at least some consensus within NFL front offices about the first 10 picks; this year, not so much. The teams making those picks have done a great job keeping their intentions quiet. In some order, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and North Carolina’s Drake Maye will come off the board next, with at least one via trade. (Of the half-dozen decision-makers I spoke with in recent days, all believe the Arizona Cardinals are trading out of the fourth spot.)
“Drake Maye is the biggest wild card in all of this,” said the general manager of a team that has done significant work on quarterbacks. “Some guys love him and think he could end up the best QB in this class, and some legitimately think he’s a mid-round pick.”
Two general managers told me they believe that if the Washington Commanders let the analytics guide them, McCarthy is their guess for the No. 2 pick. If the team’s coaches hold significant sway and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s voice resonates, then Daniels would be the selection. Both general managers also believe Daniels would love to be a Raider.
Meanwhile, the closer we get to the draft, the more people I speak to expect the New England Patriots to keep the third overall pick and use it on a passer — and McCarthy is held in very high regard in New England.
It remains to be seen which team moves up into Arizona’s slot to land the fourth quarterback; the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders, rival executives believe, are the teams most motivated to do so. Executives have also suggested that the quarterback-needy Denver Broncos are exploring options to trade down from the No. 12 pick; whether that’s in hopes that Oregon’s Bo Nix is available later in the draft or because the Broncos could be punting on passers entirely is open to interpretation. (I have a pet theory about Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders ending up a Bronco at the top of the 2025 draft.) The proximity of the Giants’ selection (sixth overall) to Arizona’s fourth pick has many giving New York the edge in completing that trade.
“They aren’t playing with Daniel Jones, I can tell you that much,” a second GM said of the Giants’ incumbent. “I hear it’s McCarthy or Maye” for New York.
No matter the order, I’m convinced that quarterbacks and offensive linemen will dominate the first round, particularly the first half of it.
“When you do your mock draft, I’d put six [quarterbacks] in the first 16 [picks],” the first executive said. “They are going to fly off the board and the offensive linemen, too.”
If the Vikings don’t move up, after already executing one trade, and are stuck at 11, then some figure they will take either Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. with that pick. The first general manager agreed with that assessment.
“They have to get a quarterback, and they can’t get too cute about it,” he said of the Vikings.
I reported weeks ago that the Raiders were as intent as any team to land a franchise quarterback in this draft, and that hasn’t changed.
Keep on eye on veteran receivers
The trade chatter surrounding disgruntled wide receivers was always going to intensify once offseason programs begin, and now it has. (I would add Baltimore’s Rashod Bateman to the list of recent first-round pass catchers who could be dealt by the end of the draft.) And the team that rival execs think might be most motivated of all to land Brandon Aiyuk, Courtland Sutton or one of their peers is a team that has already had an unusually active offseason.
The Pittsburgh Steelers revamped their quarterback room and been more active in free agency than in the past, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them land another pass catcher, within reason, allowing them to focus on this deep offensive line class in the first round. Meanwhile, teams being linked most to first-round wide receivers, according to the personnel executives I spoke with, include the Cardinals, Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
After trading Stefon Diggs, it’s considered a fait accompli that Buffalo will select one, with Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell the name I hear most often connected to the Bills. Indianapolis has done a ton of work on wideouts, even after extending Michael Pittman Jr. It would be fairly shocking if a half-dozen or so wide receivers did not go in the first round.
Some other names to remember
While the top quarterbacks’ destinations remain in doubt, there are some players who are being connected by personnel officials to specific teams with growing regularity as the draft approaches.
Many mock drafts have the Los Angeles Chargers taking the first wide receiver in this draft with the fifth pick, but personnel people I spoke with anticipate them selecting Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt if they keep the selection. Chargers Coach Jim Harbaugh is calling the shots, and he believes in building teams from the inside out. His handpicked general manager, Joe Hortiz, had a strong affinity for Notre Dame products while running the Baltimore Ravens’ college scouting department and did pretty well drafting left tackle Ronnie Stanley and safety Kyle Hamilton from that program.
“That’s Harbaugh’s guy,” the first exec said of Alt.
If the Cardinals were to swap picks with the Giants and trade down to sixth, the name I have heard most often connected to them in that spot is Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., which could trigger a run on pass catchers. The Titans (who own the No. 7 pick) are deeply invested in the wide receiver and offensive line classes, and if Alt and Harrison are already gone, they could draft a wide receiver as well: either Rome Odunze of Washington or Malik Nabers of LSU.
The Atlanta Falcons are expected to have their pick of any defensive player at eighth overall, and while some think they would lean into the strength of cornerbacks in this draft, both general managers I spoke with said they would project Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner to the Falcons, who have been seeking a difference-making edge rusher for a long time. The Bears also hold the ninth pick, and “they grab whichever of the [top three] receivers is still there,” the second general manager predicted.
The New York Jets, with quarterback/de facto GM Aaron Rodgers wielding considerable influence, are fairly infatuated with hulking Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, and if he’s available with the 10th selection, then that’s a match. Tight end is an obvious position of need for the Jets. They could use another target with size, and they are under intense pressure to win now.
Outside the top 10, multiple general managers told me their sense is the New Orleans Saints are all about finding players to fill immediate starting needs, and given the state of their offensive line, especially on the left side, I keep hearing Penn State’s Olu Fashanu linked to them. Either way, a run on offensive linemen will whip through the teens and into the back end of the first round, with the Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Ravens and 49ers all teams rival executives believe are likely to grab one in the first round, depending on how the board falls.
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