Protest votes in Pennsylvania primary loom over Trump, Biden in November

Biden faced protest votes in Pennsylvania, as well, with around 7 percent of Democratic primary voters backing a long-shot challenger no longer running, and an additional 6 percent casting a write-in ballot amid a liberal campaign to voice displeasure with Biden’s foreign policy.

But the dissent on the GOP side in key suburban counties was especially notable, Democrats argued, and came despite no organized campaign to encourage votes against Trump.

The repudiation of Trump in Tuesday’s primary is one measure of a larger dynamic operatives in both parties have a close eye on heading toward November. The extent to which Republican voters turn against Trump — and Democrats abandon Biden — could be a significant factor in a close race.

One potentially troubling sign for Trump came in the Philadelphia suburbs, four vote-rich counties where turnout is crucial to win the state. In three of the four counties, nearly 25 percent of Republican voters cast ballots for Haley over Trump. (Pennsylvania has a closed primary, so only voters registered with a party can participate in that party’s primary.)

Less clear is whether many of them, who tend to be more moderate, might be 2020 Biden voters or new potential Trump defectors.

Biden had a much stronger showing in those key swing counties, winning over 90 percent in all four.

The show of resistance against Biden was split, with around 68,000 Democratic voters casting ballots for Rep. Dean Phillips (Minn.), who, like Haley, dropped out in early March, and an additional 59,000 writing in someone or something else. Biden won about 88 percent of the vote.

Some voters across the ideological spectrum in key swing states have said they are weighing whether to stay home or align with one of several third-party options. Antipathy toward Biden and Trump has been evident this primary season in other general election battlegrounds, as well.

In the Wisconsin primary this month, for example, Biden won 89 percent in the Democratic primary, and Trump won 79 percent in the Republican contest.

Democrats are dealing with discord in the party over the war in the Middle East and Biden’s handling of it, resulting in coordinated campaigns to register protest votes, as in Michigan, where a sizable minority of Democratic primary voters chose “uncommitted” on their ballots. In Pennsylvania, there was not an uncommitted ballot option, but liberal activists waged a campaign to persuade voters to write that in. It’s not yet clear how many of the 51,119 write-in voters did so.

On the Republican side, Trump has been a dominant force for years, but his embrace of divisive positions and tactics, false claims about the 2020 election and legal problems have pushed a minority of GOP voters away — a potentially significant factor in a close election.

David La Torre, a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania, said the Trump camp has reason to worry about Haley grabbing more than 100,000 votes in the state “when she’s not even running an active campaign.”

But he underscored that there are warning signs for Biden in Pennsylvania and other swing states, as well, particularly when third-party candidates are in the mix. La Torre said that third-party candidates were not a major factor in 2020 but that Gary Johnson helped Trump narrowly win Pennsylvania in 2016, drawing more than 2 percent of the vote.

“What the Trump people need to do is they need to get in Pennsylvania, they need to make their case, they need to talk about the economy, they need to run against Joe Biden’s record — and Donald Trump needs to stop talking about himself and how he’s a victim,” La Torre said.

Public polling shows a tight race in Pennsylvania, with Biden and Trump virtually tied. Both campaigns intend to spend heavily in the state, which historically almost always chooses the presidential victor. When Trump won the White House in 2016, he narrowly beat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by about 44,000 votes.

“The fact is, these voters are up for grabs,” said Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic public affairs executive.

Republicans responded by pointing to vulnerabilities for Biden, including low approval ratings and polls in swing states that have shown Trump ahead. “Yesterday, President Trump continued his winning streak and delivered a resounding primary win in Pennsylvania,” said Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, suggesting that the Biden campaign would not be able to overcome dissatisfaction over issues such as inflation.

Biden’s campaign, meanwhile, also touted the results in Pennsylvania, with rapid response director Ammar Moussa declaring they showed that Trump’s “extremism” alienates voters — “even when he’s not running against anyone.”

Some other data suggests Haley’s persistent support in low-turnout primaries might not be a sign of problems for Trump in November. Recent national and Pennsylvania polls find about 9 in 10 self-identified Republicans support Trump in the general election, on par with the share of Democrats who support Biden.